Malcolm Gladwell's turn-of-the-millennium book, The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference, delves into the pivotal moment when an idea or trend explodes into public consciousness and spreads rapidly.
From fashion and smoking to television and crime, Gladwell examines the small sparks that ignite big change. Does he occasionally stray into the realm of fiction? Perhaps. But he also showcases his talent as a captivating storyteller, skilfully weaving together intriguing narratives that have helped secure the book's status as a perennial bestseller.
With the sequel now on the shelves, it’s the perfect time to revisit what made The Tipping Point resonate so deeply with readers in the first place…
The truth is rarely pure and never simple
When Oscar Wilde was asked why the United States was such a violent country during his North American tour in 1882, he responded: "Because your wallpaper is so ugly."
A quintessential Wildean witticism, maybe, but it holds a kernel of truth: our living conditions do influence our behaviour.
If parents take their children on holiday or to a park in a new town and notice broken windows in the streets and play equipment covered in graffiti, they're likely not to stay long. Such indicators that the area is neglected can trigger a chain reaction of thoughts for most parents: Is it safe? Will the graffiti artists come back to reclaim their territory? Are there gangs of criminals lurking nearby?
In The Tipping Point, Gladwell references a moment in the mid-1990s when crime in New York City seemed to have spiralled out of control. Rather than taking conventional measures – like increasing the number of police officers or imposing longer sentences for offenders – authorities turned their focus to a series of seemingly trivial details...
They believed that issues like graffiti on subway cars and the lack of penalties for fare dodgers conveyed a message that no one was tackling the deteriorating situation.
Graffiti was promptly removed, fare evasion became a punishable offence, and instances of police “stop-and-frisk” increased. By adopting a zero-tolerance approach to what appeared to be minor issues, authorities signalled to the public that reckless behaviour would no longer be tolerated. The crime rate declined sharply in the years that followed, effectively reversing the crime “epidemic,” and all thanks to these relatively small interventions. But was it really that simple?
Gladwell included this story as an example of something reaching critical mass, or a tipping point. He observed that the relentless effort to remove graffiti – a seemingly small gesture aimed at fostering civic pride – ultimately led to a significant outcome that improved the lives of millions of New Yorkers.
And yet…
Over the years, scepticism grew regarding any causal link between what came to be known as “broken windows theory” and the decline in crime rates. This included research published in Justice Quarterly by New York University professor David Greenberg, who concluded:
While many may point to greater enforcement of lower-level offences as a factor in curbing more serious crimes, the data simply don’t support this conclusion.
To his credit, Gladwell now openly acknowledges: “I was wrong. Here’s how badly I was wrong. Here’s why I was wrong.” In a recent interview with The New York Times, he reflects:
The idea that crime was an epidemic and that criminal behaviour was contagious is correct. But the idea that broken windows and stop-and-frisk were the correct response to a contagion is completely false.
Oscar Wilde would remind us that “the truth is rarely pure and never simple.” In the case of Gladwell, it’s crucial not to let the allure of his engaging non-fiction writing tip us toward his tidy conclusions without conducting a bit of research of our own.
Everything in moderation, including moderation
The beauty of The Tipping Point lies in its multiplicity of stories, interwoven and fragmented to create a compelling reading experience that invites us to share Gladwell’s loose conclusions. He encourages us to consider the role of the “Maven,” a person endowed with a unique x-factor of knowledge and influence that can tip the balance for those around them.
Gladwell points to the resurgence of Hush Puppies shoes in the 1990s, speculating on how a brand could shift from being desperately unfashionable to catwalk chic in the lacing of a shoe…
Maybe a fashion Maven went to the East Village, looking for new ideas, and found out that you could get these really cool old Hush Puppies at a certain thrift store, for a very good price, and told his friends, who bought the shoes for themselves because there is something about the personal, disinterested, expert opinion of a Maven that makes us all sit up and listen.
Sales of the brand skyrocketed, and by 1996, Hush Puppies were sharing the fashion awards stage with Calvin Klein and Donna Karan, “and it all started with a handful of kids in the East Village and Soho.”
The pre-2000 trends in technology also provide a satisfyingly neat example:
Cellular phones have followed the same trajectory. Through the 1990s, they got smaller and cheaper, and service got better until 1998, when the technology hit a Tipping Point and suddenly everyone had a cell phone.
So, what exactly creates these “tipping points”? Is there a marketing formula we can decipher? Not exactly. But by reflecting on these observations, Gladwell identifies three key factors that contribute:
1) The law of the few
One person. All it takes is one person… or, in this case, a Maven: “There are exceptional people out there who are capable of starting epidemics. All you have to do is find them.” Fortunately for Gladwell, this was the era before YouTube influencers. And for Hush Puppies, a Maven or two happened to be on the lookout for footwear bargains at that pivotal moment.
2) The stickiness factor:
Gladwell writes:
In epidemics, the messenger matters: messengers are what make something spread. But the content of the message matters too. And the specific quality that a message needs to be successful is the quality of ‘stickiness'. Is the message – or the food, or the movie, or the product – memorable? Is it so memorable, in fact, that it can create change, that it can spur someone to action?
He points to direct marketers as the true students of stickiness:
Reaching the consumer with the message is not the hard part of direct marketing. What is difficult is getting consumers to stop, read the advertisement, remember it, and then act on it. To figure out which ads work the best, direct marketers do extensive testing. They might create a dozen different versions of the same ad and run them simultaneously in a dozen different cities and compare the response rates to each.
And while the Gladwell of 24 years ago is talking cut-out coupons and 800 numbers, the premise remains the same. It’s the reason why YouTubers test tens – even hundreds – of thumbnails per video! Gladwell notes:
There is a simple way to package information that, under the right circumstances, can make it irresistible. All you have to do is find it.
3) The power of context:
Gladwell invites us to consider that:
We are more than just sensitive to changes in context. We're exquisitely sensitive to them. And the kinds of contextual changes that are capable of tipping an epidemic are very different than we might ordinarily suspect.
In the case of Hush Puppies, the sight of kids wearing these everyday shoes “in the cutting-edge precincts of the East Village” sparked a contextual shift that made people “look at the shoes in a new light.” I’ll remember this the next time I spy someone wearing Crocs on the school run…
I can resist everything except temptation
Perhaps the real power of Gladwell’s The Tipping Point lies in its intuitive appeal; it makes sense of life’s seemingly random coincidences and trends by subtly suggesting the possibility of causation and structure. He even references my second favourite Oscar (the Grouch), providing a forensic analysis of the meticulous audience research that informed every episode of Sesame Street (interestingly, there was no “stickiness factor” until the introduction of Big Bird!). The implication is clear: if you can capture preschool kids’ attention for extended periods with something educational, you likely understand a thing or two about influence.
With the publication this month of a sequel, Revenge of the Tipping Point, there’s no better time to explore this original tinderbox of ideas, crafted in a pre-digital age when an “influencer” could be as subtle and innocent as someone choosing to wear unfashionable shoes. As The New York Times notes:
It matched the optimism of the late 1990s; it mapped how to create positive change at a moment of positive potential, with the Cold War over and crime declining.
As Wilde said, there is only one thing in the world worse than being talked about, and that is not being talked about. And it’s easy to see why Gladwell’s reputation propelled him into international fame and why, almost 25 years after its release, we’re still talking about The Tipping Point.
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